Laplace's Rule of Succession Interactive

Вираз 9: "y" equals 5.5 left brace, 0.2 less than or equal to "x" less than or equal to 0.2 plus StartFraction, 0.7 Over "M" , EndFraction "n" , right brace Має графік. Для голосового супроводу натисніть ALT+T.

Вираз 10: "y" equals 5.5 left brace, 0.2 plus StartFraction, 0.7 Over "M" , EndFraction "n" less than or equal to "x" less than or equal to 0.9 , right brace Має графік. Для голосового супроводу натисніть ALT+T.

Приховані Мітка left parenthesis, 0.2 plus StartFraction, 0.7 Over "M" , EndFraction times left bracket, 0... "n" , right bracket , 5.5 , right parenthesis equals список точок. 11 елементів Має графік. Для голосового супроводу натисніть ALT+T.

Мітка

equals

left parenthesis, 0.2 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.2 5 8 3 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.3 1 6 7 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.3 7 5 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.4 3 3 3 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.4 9 1 7 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.5 5 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.6 0 8 3 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.6 6 6 7 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.7 2 5 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

left parenthesis, 0.7 8 3 3 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

`r=${r}` left parenthesis, 0.2 plus StartFraction, 0.7 Over "M" , EndFraction "r" , 5.5 , right parenthesis equals left parenthesis, 0.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 , 5.5 , right parenthesis Має графік. Для голосового супроводу натисніть ALT+T.

Мітка:

equals

left parenthesis, 0.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 , 5.5 , right parenthesis

Вираз 13: "c" Subscript, 1 , Baseline equals rgb left parenthesis, 200 , 200 , 200 , right parenthesis equals світло-сірий

Best Guess

Probability Density Graph

Text on right

Coordinates

за підтримки

"n" equals 10

"r" equals 8

Best guess for next-round probability of success is 0.75, not 0.8!

"p" equals StartFraction, "r" Over "n" , EndFraction equals 0.8

"f" ( "p" ) equals ( "n" plus 1 ) "p" Superscript, "r" , Baseline ( 1 minus "p" ) Superscript, "n" minus "r" , Baseline StartBinomial, "n" Choose "r" , EndBinomial

Start integral from 0 to 1, end integral, "f" ( "p" ) "d" "x" equals 1

Start integral from 0 to 1, end integral, "p" "f" ( "p" ) "d" "x" equals StartFraction, "r" plus 1 Over "n" plus 2 , EndFraction equals 0.7 5

So far, 8 out of 10 trials (0.8) have been successes.

Thus our best guess for

"p"

is 0.8.

However, our best guess for the probability of the

next round being a success is 0.75.

0.2

0.5

0.8

0.33

0.67